Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-15 4.338953 5.126726 5.999258 7.034859 8.227869 9.556431 11.145213
2025-06-22 3.105555 4.150698 5.436983 7.124715 9.267624 11.883285 15.301460
2025-06-29 2.320454 3.450262 4.971642 7.142376 10.126884 14.047884 19.542765
2025-07-06 1.791555 2.927127 4.581291 7.117499 10.846476 16.053661 23.779910
2025-07-13 1.569869 2.777264 4.655329 7.710314 12.453020 19.406727 30.200718
2025-07-20 1.330527 2.537330 4.533211 7.961943 13.555095 22.123790 35.970817
2025-07-27 1.154627 2.359403 4.466574 8.268972 14.751425 25.074534 42.353951
2025-08-03 0.969908 2.121995 4.250508 8.278806 15.442911 27.278596 47.757191
2025-08-10 0.784859 1.840446 3.901265 7.990849 15.573233 28.557541 51.756413
2025-08-17 0.626171 1.574184 3.529355 7.594562 15.443665 29.358280 54.995857
2025-08-24 0.525862 1.409613 3.325926 7.481975 15.803208 31.015520 59.815045
2025-08-31 0.446743 1.274388 3.157614 7.409226 16.218525 32.793700 64.976087
2025-09-07 0.411727 1.241241 3.210590 7.815355 17.643954 36.601257 74.213441
2025-09-14 0.357295 1.145351 3.105902 7.869189 18.368758 39.168333 81.403036
2025-09-21 0.308213 1.050953 2.987036 7.872460 18.986561 41.583677 88.510021
2025-09-28 0.264937 0.961038 2.861612 7.839607 19.518795 43.871717 95.552007
2025-10-05 0.257394 0.977325 3.010881 8.483619 21.612740 49.490017 109.573840
2025-10-12 0.234729 0.939641 3.010005 8.756903 22.896398 53.539802 120.746655
2025-10-19 0.216641 0.912193 3.032162 9.090911 24.354588 58.071433 133.225251
2025-10-26 0.190065 0.847370 2.935797 9.101509 25.046867 61.017348 142.630351
2025-11-02 0.158133 0.752342 2.730824 8.787952 24.914522 62.147143 148.287649
2025-11-09 0.128511 0.655198 2.497613 8.356312 24.431958 62.444819 152.168316
2025-11-16 0.110335 0.598013 2.379357 8.233643 24.720250 64.512145 160.053427